Prime Minister Mark Carney: will he be a friend or foe of the agriculture industry?
It’s taken me a few days to process the results of our recent Canadian election. While this won’t come as a surprise to many, I was deeply disappointed with the results.
Having met with Conservative leader Pierre Pollievre just days before the election, the feeling was that it would be tight. But who could have predicted that the NDP would lose seats and be decimated, and many of those voters turned to the Liberals?
After 10 years, why did Canadians elect another Liberal government? We can endlessly dissect the election results – did Pollievre too closely resemble Trump for some voters, did Doug Ford sabotage the federal Conservative campaign, were Canadian voters pacified by what I think will be a “temporary” removal of the carbon tax and a .17 cent drop in the price of gas?
I know these discussions are happening all across the country around kitchen tables, Tim Hortons, in boardrooms and farm shops.
My focus is on agriculture and where we go next.
Can Canada’s resource industry count on Carney?
Agriculture was not an election issue. That’s no surprise – it never is. But our country’s productivity, inflation and affordability were and continue to be significant issues facing Canadians.
I think our industry saw the prospect of a new Conservative government as a potential catalyst for economic growth in the natural resources sector. Let’s face it: when the oil and gas, mining and critical minerals industries are doing well, agriculture does well too. When our natural resources sector grows, investment grows, and we have more leverage to negotiate with railways and ports, which helps open up new markets and trade opportunities.
Will Prime Minister Mark Carney allow our resource sector to grow? It remains to be seen. There’s no question Carney is intelligent, a Harvard-educated economist and former banker. The man knows business. But is he good at bringing people together? I think that will be his biggest challenge.
When you look at the Canadian electoral map, it’s pretty clear that the urban areas elected Carney and not the rural areas, where most of our natural resources come from. How will he negotiate a win-win for these industries that fuel Canada’s economic growth?
It will be interesting to see who is appointed as the next federal Minister of Agriculture. Many assume Nova Scotia MP Kody Blois will stay in that portfolio. Whoever becomes our next Minister of Agriculture, his or her biggest job will be getting this portfolio on the PM’s radar. Good luck.
Some other key areas where the new Ag minister will need to focus are a comprehensive review of agriculture spending, business risk management programs, trade, supply management and ways to help the next generation afford to farm. CAPI just released a good and thorough report on this that I encourage you to read.
Western separation
Almost as soon as the election ended, talk of Western separation began, mainly from Alberta. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe appears to be shutting that discussion down. I don’t want to add fuel to that fire and think joining the United States is ridiculous. However, I can empathize with the frustration that’s being felt in Alberta.
I’m not a proponent of separation, but I think people are wrong when they say that Alberta and Saskatchewan would be economically handcuffing themselves if they were to separate. If we think about geography in this country, everything that comes into the port of Vancouver must get to the other side of the country, crossing through AB and SK. The provinces have much more power than we think and I wouldn’t be surprised if Premiers Danielle Smith and Scott Moe are calling in their constitutional lawyers for some pretty in-depth discussions.
Electoral Reform
I believe there is real merit to the ongoing debate, which resurfaces after every election, about the need for meaningful electoral reform in Canada.
It might surprise you that I have no problem with the number of ridings in Ontario and Quebec. These provinces account for a substantial share of Canada’s population and their seat count is justified. My bigger issue is with Atlantic Canada.
Atlantic Canada has a population of about 2.5 million and 32 seats in this election. Compare that with Alberta, which has a population of 5 million and only 37 seats.
This isn’t regional resentment—it’s a valid issue. If we want a united Canada, I think it’s time we revisit how representation is structured to ensure it better reflects the realities of today’s Canada.
What has changed?
For the agriculture industry, not much has changed. And that’s my biggest fear, that not much will change.
We’ll be watching closely to see if the carbon tax comes back in another form (or with another name) and what the Liberals do regarding capital gains taxes. Many Canadians won’t be happy if they decide to remove the principal residence exemption, which currently protects the profit on a home sale from taxes. For most Canadians, their homes make up a large part of their retirement income.
I’m an optimist (on most days) and I will wait and see if Carney can build trust with regular Canadians, such as farmers. Will he fight for the ag industry just as hard as Eastern Canada’s auto industry? Will he provide true tax relief?
Is he an “elite” or is he one of us? Time will tell.